Thursday, November 3, 2011

Boise in the NC

A hypothetical look at how Boise State can make the National Championship:

WEEK 10
No. 2 Alabama over No. 1 LSU: Really, it doesn't matter which of these teams wins or loses for Boise's sake. I personally think Bama wins, so let's roll with that.
No. 3 Oklahoma State over No. 14 Kansas State: Obviously it would be better for Boise for KState to win this game, but I don't see that happening; even in this hypothetical situation that is asking too much.
No. 4 Stanford over Oregon State: Again, a Stanford loss would obviously be good for Boise. It isn't happening in this one.
No. 5 Boise State over UNLV: The bigger the better.
No. 6 Oklahoma over Texas A&M: While I think A&M is competitive in this game, I'm not ready to say they beat Oklahoma.
No. 18 Georgia over New Mexico State: The more wins Georgia piles up, the better that season opening win looks. And by the way, after UGA beats New Mexico State, that will be seven straight wins.
Projected BCS Rankings after Week 10:
1. Alabama
2. OK State
3. Stanford
4. Boise
5. Oklahoma
6. LSU
7. Oregon

WEEK 11
No. 1 Alabama over Mississippi State: The winner of Bama/LSU is presumed to win out, right?
No. 2 OK State over Texas Tech: The Red Raiders to do to OK State what they did to Oklahoma would be beautiful for Chris Petersen, but let's say it doesn't happen.
No. 7 Oregon over No. 3 Stanford: Obvious game of the week. If Chip Kelly can pull off the upset, Boise moves up. Oregon pounded Stanford last year after being down 21 early. This has the makings of a GREAT game.
No. 4 Boise over TCU: The bigger the better.
No. 6 LSU over Western Kentucky: Don't see the Hilltoppers pulling this one out.
N0. 17 Georgia over No. 20 Auburn: A win over a ranked squad for UGA is great news for Boise.
** No. 5 Oklahoma is off.
Projected BCS Standings after Week 11:
1. Alabama
2. OK State
3. Boise
4. Oregon (Should they ever be ranked ahead of LSU this year? NO! But the BCS is the worst system in the history of sports, so it doesn't grasp that)
5. LSU
6. Oklahoma
7. Stanford? Arkansas?

WEEK 12
No. 1 Alabama over Georgia Southern: No comment necessary.
No. 2 OK State over Iowa State: See above.
No. 3 Boise State over San Diego State: Keep on rackin up those dubs.
No. 25 USC over No. 4 Oregon: USC has shown it can play with anybody. This win gets Boise a little bit of breathing room, too.
No. 5 LSU over Ole Miss: Yup.
No. 6 Oklahoma over Baylor: Preferably not in a blowout.
No. 15 Georgia over Kentucky: C'mon Dawgs!
Projected BCS Standings after Week 12:
1. Alabama
2. OK State
3. Boise
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Someone else.

WEEK 13
No. 1 Alabama over No. 20 Auburn: Go Tigers!
No. 3 Boise over Wyoming: Ho-hum.
No. 4 LSU over No. 7 Arkansas: Toss up. Arkansas is really good.
No. 5 Oklahoma over Iowa State: The closer the better.
No. 14 Georgia over No. 23 Georgia Tech: Georgia is going to the SEC Championship Game.
Projected BCS Standings after Week 13:
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma State
3. Boise State
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma

WEEK 14
No. 5 Oklahoma over No. 2 Oklahoma State: Oklahoma goes to Stillwater at ends OK State's dream season and any chance they had at a National Championship.
Alabama wins the SEC Championship over Georgia
Boise wins their conference championship
leading to this....

Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma

Of course, there are some flaws to this extreme hypothetical. I'm predicting some very good teams to lose to teams that, in most instances, are not better than them. However, that is how college football works, just ask Oklahoma. And Wisconsin. And Boise last year. The other major potential flaw in this piece is will an undefeated Boise even finish ahead of an undefeated LSU or Oklahoma or Oregon? I would like to think yes. It could depend on how well Boise plays in their victories down the stretch. It also depends on how impressive the one loss teams look down the stretch.

This entire argument could be pointless if Boise stumbles, as it did last year to Nevada. It would be much easier to be Alabama, LSU or Oklahoma State and control your own destiny. But Boise will do it what does every year. They'll continue to win games and Chris Petersen will do the commendable thing and not bash the BCS like he deserves to.

Go Broncos.

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