Before I get to my Week 8 picks, I want to comment on my favorite football game of the year: Cowboys @ Eagles. The rivalary was dominated by the Cowboys for a long time, until the Eagles beat Dallas in the 1980 NFC Championship game. It was brought back to life when the Cowboys ran up the score on a replacement players led Eagles team in 87. The Eagles returned that favor the same season when they got their guys back. Buddy Ryan had Randall Cunningham fake a knee and throw to the endzone to give the Eagles a three score win. Later in the rivalary, with Jimmy Johnson coaching the Eagles, was the Bounty Bowl. Allegedly, Buddy Ryan offered a bonus to any Eagles player who took Troy Aikman out of the game. This resulted in numerous late hits on Aikman and a furious Jimmy Johnson.
More recently, in 2008, the Eagles were seemingly out of the playoff picture until a string of losses made their Week 17 matchup with the Cowboys a Winner is In game. The Birds routed the Boys, 44-6. The next year, Dallas flipped it on them and blew out the Eagles to win the NFC East and then humiliated them for the second week in a row in the NFC Wildcard.
Now, we are here. The Eagles are a disappointing 2-4 and the Cowboys are a mediocre 3-3. The winner of Sunday night's game will be in good position to catch the Giants in a mediocre NFC East. The loser will be in quite a hole. The Linc will be rocking Sunday night when the hated Cowboys visit. And there is nothing the city of Philadelphia, and myself, would like more than to beat the living shit out of the Cowboys. Fly Eagles Fly.
On to Week 8 Picks!
Detroit-3 @ Denver
What's this line if Tebow doesn't find a way to win last week? 10? I'm all aboard the Tebow bandwagon but I think Detroit is more than 3 points better than Denver. Give me Detroit -3.
New Orleans -14 @ St Louis
The Saints just hung 62 on a winless team and while I don't think they hang 62 again, does anyone really doubt they get 40? I'll take the Saints -14.
New England -2.5 @ Pittsburgh
My head says Pittsburgh is the pick here. The Steelers have only been underdogs three times at home in the last three years and they're 3-0 outright in those games. If New England wasn't coming off of a bye, I think I might take Pittsburgh, but I can't do it. New England -2.5 is the pick.
Jacksonville +10 @ Houston
I just can't buy Houston! I know Jacksonville is overvalued because of a strong showing on MNF but their defense is actually good. They have an identity, pound MJD and hope Gabbert doesn't mess up too bad. I think Jacksonville can keep it close, gimme the Jags +10.
Cleveland +9.5 @ San Francisco
I buy San Francisco as being a good team but almost 10 point favorites to an okay Cleveland team seems like too much. I dont think San Fran has a whole lot of trouble winning, but Cleveland won't get blown it. Browns +9.5 for me.
Cincinnati -1 @ Seattle
I'm all in on the Red Rifle and AJ Green. I am NOT all in on Charlie Whitehurst. Is Seattle as bad as they played last week? Probably not. Does it worry me a little Cincy is flying cross country? Yeah, a little. But it doesn't worry me enough to stray from Cincinnati -1 as my pick.
Arizona +14 @ Baltimore
Hopefully you didn't take my advice last weekend and bet your mortage on Baltimore on MNF. However, if you listened to me last weekend and are one of the four people still reading, you're hooked. I say take Baltimore -14 and feel pretty safe about it. Cross country game.
Indianapolis +10 @ Tennessee
Who would have thought the best thing that could happen to Peyton Manning's career would be him get hurt and miss a season. Doesn't this validate him as one of the games all time greats? Anyway, this Indy team sucks something serious. I'll take Tennessee -10 at home.
Miami +10.5 @ New York G
My upset special for the week. Dolphins win this one outright. I don't trust Eli as a big favorite. He burned me once this year in the Seahawks game(my eliminator pick) as a 14pt favorite. I say the Dolphins get to Eli and lose a step in the Suck for Luck race but win this game outright. Miami +10.5 for me.
Minnesota +3.5 @ Carolina
Free Money alert. I'm not sure that Christian Ponder is as solid as he looked last week. Cam Newton is every bit as good as he looked against a solid Washington D last week. I'll chalk this one up as my favorite game of the week. Carolina -3.5.
Washington +6 @ Buffalo
I believe in the Bills and think the Skins are dead in the water. A friend of mine made a point that as soon as the Skins switched QB's their season would be over. I'm in 100% on that call. BUT, I'm thinking Beck can keep them within backdoor range and slide into a cover. I'll take the Skins +6.
Kansas City +3.5 @ San Diego
C'mon man. Does anybody out there actually believe the Chargers are only 3.5 points better than KC? I know KC always plays them tough and SD hasn't been impressive this year but this is a joke. Anyone who takes KC is an asshole who doesn't like money. Gimme SD -3.5.
Dallas +3.5 @ Philadelphia
12-0. That is Andy's record in his career after a bye. The Cowboys can lose this game and still be alive in the division, the Eagles cannot. I'm calling for a classic Mike Vick game(and no, that doesn't mean 80 rushing yards, 3 INT's and a concussion). He'll be the best player on the field in this one and give me the best birthday present of my life. E-A-G-L-E-S -3.5.
To whoever out there read this whole thing, thanks, appreciate it. I'd also appreciate it if you linked to this on facebook, twitter or whatever social media site you use. Also, a shoutout to the fellas at http://www.pickinsplinters.com/ for giving me a little publicity. Check out their site, there is some great material on there. Hope everyone has a Happy Halloween weekend.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
And then there were eight...
When Saturday started, there were 10 undefeated teams. All ten were favored, and nine were favored by double digits. There are now 8 undefeated teams. Wisconsin went down in an absolutely wild game that was decided by a last second Hail Mary in East Lansing. Oklahoma went down at home to 29 point underdog Texas Tech. All in all, the undefeateds went 7-3 ATS yesterday, a very respectable showing.
With Oklahoma and Wisconsin both falling yesterday, teams like Boise State and Stanford take a huge step up in the rankings to be released later today. There are currently three teams that seem to control their own destiny:
LSU: In case you haven't heard, LSU and Alabama play at Bryant-Denny on November 5th. The winner will be the undisputed #1 team in the country and will need only to win the SEC Championship to secure their spot in the BCS National Championship.
Alabama: See above.
Oklahoma State: It is possible that Oklahoma's loss actually HURTS the Cowboys. A win over Oklahoma in the season finale will certainly carry alot of weight, but not near as much as it would have if both teams were unbeaten. OK State, should it remain undefeated, would seem to jump a one loss SEC team in the NC.
That leaves Stanford, Boise, Clemson and Kansas State on the outside looking in. If Kansas State were to win out(wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M) maybe they would have a case that they deserve to be in the NC. Even with that dominant win over Kansas yesterday, I don't think too many of us are betting on them to be playing in the last game of the season.
Stanford played it's first ranked opponent yesterday and destroyed them. They did with a very pedestrian Andrew Luck game also. Stanford set a school record for rushing yards with almost 500 yards on the ground. Stanford has three tough games remaining: @USC, hosting Oregon and hosting Notre Dame. The BCS backers have to be praying that Stanford suffers a loss, because it would be quite a shame to leave out college football's biggest individual star from the game's biggest stage.
Boise State is doing what they always do. Although not overly impressive against Air Force yesterday, they still won by two scores. Boise's toughest game left on the schedule is a home game against TCU. Chris Petersen and crew will need help to reach the NC, and many would even argue that a one loss Oklahoma, Bama/LSU, OKState or Stanford would deserve in over Boise. They also do crack cocaine. Go Broncos.
Am I the only one who keeps waiting for the inevitable Clemson meltdown? Dabo and the boys seem intent on not letting that happen. Clemson travels to Georgia Tech and ends the season @South Carolina. If Clemson runs the table, it will have five wins over ranked opponents, maybe six depending on the ACC Championship. I don't think there is a quarterback in the country playing better than Tajh Boyd right now.
So there are still seven teams in play for the National Championship(No, I am not counting undefeated Houston). The BCS better be hoping and praying that some of the above teams stumble and we don't end the season with multiple unbeaten teams. I personally am rooting for as many undefeateds as possible. The only way to fix the BCS, it seems, is to consistently show how stupid it is. So as much as I love the upsets and the shocking games that make college football what it is, I will spend the rest of the season rooting for the favorites.
It is the only way to expose the BCS for what it actually is, an absolute travesty to the game of college football.
With Oklahoma and Wisconsin both falling yesterday, teams like Boise State and Stanford take a huge step up in the rankings to be released later today. There are currently three teams that seem to control their own destiny:
LSU: In case you haven't heard, LSU and Alabama play at Bryant-Denny on November 5th. The winner will be the undisputed #1 team in the country and will need only to win the SEC Championship to secure their spot in the BCS National Championship.
Alabama: See above.
Oklahoma State: It is possible that Oklahoma's loss actually HURTS the Cowboys. A win over Oklahoma in the season finale will certainly carry alot of weight, but not near as much as it would have if both teams were unbeaten. OK State, should it remain undefeated, would seem to jump a one loss SEC team in the NC.
That leaves Stanford, Boise, Clemson and Kansas State on the outside looking in. If Kansas State were to win out(wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M) maybe they would have a case that they deserve to be in the NC. Even with that dominant win over Kansas yesterday, I don't think too many of us are betting on them to be playing in the last game of the season.
Stanford played it's first ranked opponent yesterday and destroyed them. They did with a very pedestrian Andrew Luck game also. Stanford set a school record for rushing yards with almost 500 yards on the ground. Stanford has three tough games remaining: @USC, hosting Oregon and hosting Notre Dame. The BCS backers have to be praying that Stanford suffers a loss, because it would be quite a shame to leave out college football's biggest individual star from the game's biggest stage.
Boise State is doing what they always do. Although not overly impressive against Air Force yesterday, they still won by two scores. Boise's toughest game left on the schedule is a home game against TCU. Chris Petersen and crew will need help to reach the NC, and many would even argue that a one loss Oklahoma, Bama/LSU, OKState or Stanford would deserve in over Boise. They also do crack cocaine. Go Broncos.
Am I the only one who keeps waiting for the inevitable Clemson meltdown? Dabo and the boys seem intent on not letting that happen. Clemson travels to Georgia Tech and ends the season @South Carolina. If Clemson runs the table, it will have five wins over ranked opponents, maybe six depending on the ACC Championship. I don't think there is a quarterback in the country playing better than Tajh Boyd right now.
So there are still seven teams in play for the National Championship(No, I am not counting undefeated Houston). The BCS better be hoping and praying that some of the above teams stumble and we don't end the season with multiple unbeaten teams. I personally am rooting for as many undefeateds as possible. The only way to fix the BCS, it seems, is to consistently show how stupid it is. So as much as I love the upsets and the shocking games that make college football what it is, I will spend the rest of the season rooting for the favorites.
It is the only way to expose the BCS for what it actually is, an absolute travesty to the game of college football.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Week 7 Picks
If you're reading this, I'm assuming you know me so there is really no need for an introduction. I didn't want to write an interesting hook to start this sucker off so I'm going to go a different route and jump right into my Week 7 NFL Picks. I've had a couple of pretty good weekends lately. Of course, now that I said that I am on the fast track to a 5-8 weekend. Here goes nothing.
**Keep in mind, this blog isn't going to be about just sports betting. I'll use it to blast the Eagles wack ass linebackers, rip David Stern and Billy Hunter for being douchebags, and talk about how insanely good Claude Giroux is. If you don't know who any of those people are then there is really no point in continuing to read. You've been warned.
Chicago -1 @ Tampa: I have been high on the Bucs all year and think that everyone will overrate Chicago based on the curbstomping of Minnesota on SNF. I'm taking the Bucs +1.
Washington +2.5 @ Carolina: I feel like NFL D Coordinators are starting to figure out Cam Newton. However, let's not forget that John Beck is the Redskins starting quarterback. Not sure why everyone is excited about Beck taking over for Grossman. There is a reason Sexy Rexy was the starter for the first six weeks. He's better than Beck. If John Beck is a downgrade from Rex, gimme the Panthers -2.5.
San Diego -2 @ New York Jets: Haven't been on the Jets on all year. I don't think SD has looked good so far. Losing Sproles in the offseason and having Gates on the sidelines really hurts them. Butttt, as my good friend Soaps pointed out, the Jets are preparing with a short week and the Chargers are coming off a bye. I'll take the Chargers -2.
Seattle +3 @ Cleveland: This is one of the games that I don't feel comfortable touching because I just don't give a shit about it. I think Charlie Whitehurst will help out Seattle's passing game a little. Cleveland's offense lacks any kind of deep threat. Hate to say it but I'll take Seattle +3 on the road.
Houston +3.5 @ Tennessee: I don't have a strong feeling about this game, either. I don't like Houston and am lukewarm to Tennessee. I'll take the healthier team coming off a bye. Give me Tennessee -3.5.
Denver +2.5 @ Miami: Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. I know it seems too easy and if Denver played anyone else, I'd probably pick against him but Miami isn't good. For God's sake it's Matt Moore! Gimme Denver +2.5.
Atlanta +3.5 @ Detroit: Whenever Atlanta reverts back to 2010 and starts running the Burner 20+ times a game, let me know. Until they do that, I'll keep going against them. Detroit -3.5 is the pick.
Kansas City +4.5 @ Oakland: I don't buy Carson Palmer's playbook concerns. He's a veteran, the Raiders playbook is simple, anyway. Throw it deep to DHB, Ford and their other sub 4.4 wideouts. Or hand it off to McFadden. The Chiefs suck. Oakland -4.5, thanks.
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Arizona: I really wanted to take Arizona here and just pray they lost by three. Beanie is going to run on this defense, but Kolb won't be able to keep them from loading the box in the second half. Take Pittsburgh -3.5.
Dallas -12.5 @ St Louis: I don't feel the need to say much about this except St Louis has a JV secondary and Dallas has a pretty dirty receiving core. Dallas -12.5 is easy money.
Green Bay -9 @ Minnesota: GB is due to put up a stinkbomb. This ain't the game. Christian Ponder will make a few plays of note and the loss won't be his fault but Green Bay -9 is my pick.
Indianapolis +14 @ New Orleans: I don't know what it is about this New Orleans team, but I don't buy them. And for some reason, I think this Indy team can hang with everyone and not beat anybody. I'll take Indy +14.
Baltimore -7.5 @ Jacksonville: I've heard multiple analysts call this Ravens D as good as the 01 D that won the SB single handedly (sorry, Trent). The Ravens average margin of victory is 22.5 points this year. Do I need to make myself any more clear. I refuse to put this one in bold print, it's that clear.
*There you go. Those are my picks for the weekend. In all honesty, if you bet the opposite of every single pick, you would probably win money. There are 13 games this weekend, the goal for every weekend is to just finish above .500, let's see how that works out.
**Keep in mind, this blog isn't going to be about just sports betting. I'll use it to blast the Eagles wack ass linebackers, rip David Stern and Billy Hunter for being douchebags, and talk about how insanely good Claude Giroux is. If you don't know who any of those people are then there is really no point in continuing to read. You've been warned.
Chicago -1 @ Tampa: I have been high on the Bucs all year and think that everyone will overrate Chicago based on the curbstomping of Minnesota on SNF. I'm taking the Bucs +1.
Washington +2.5 @ Carolina: I feel like NFL D Coordinators are starting to figure out Cam Newton. However, let's not forget that John Beck is the Redskins starting quarterback. Not sure why everyone is excited about Beck taking over for Grossman. There is a reason Sexy Rexy was the starter for the first six weeks. He's better than Beck. If John Beck is a downgrade from Rex, gimme the Panthers -2.5.
San Diego -2 @ New York Jets: Haven't been on the Jets on all year. I don't think SD has looked good so far. Losing Sproles in the offseason and having Gates on the sidelines really hurts them. Butttt, as my good friend Soaps pointed out, the Jets are preparing with a short week and the Chargers are coming off a bye. I'll take the Chargers -2.
Seattle +3 @ Cleveland: This is one of the games that I don't feel comfortable touching because I just don't give a shit about it. I think Charlie Whitehurst will help out Seattle's passing game a little. Cleveland's offense lacks any kind of deep threat. Hate to say it but I'll take Seattle +3 on the road.
Houston +3.5 @ Tennessee: I don't have a strong feeling about this game, either. I don't like Houston and am lukewarm to Tennessee. I'll take the healthier team coming off a bye. Give me Tennessee -3.5.
Denver +2.5 @ Miami: Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. I know it seems too easy and if Denver played anyone else, I'd probably pick against him but Miami isn't good. For God's sake it's Matt Moore! Gimme Denver +2.5.
Atlanta +3.5 @ Detroit: Whenever Atlanta reverts back to 2010 and starts running the Burner 20+ times a game, let me know. Until they do that, I'll keep going against them. Detroit -3.5 is the pick.
Kansas City +4.5 @ Oakland: I don't buy Carson Palmer's playbook concerns. He's a veteran, the Raiders playbook is simple, anyway. Throw it deep to DHB, Ford and their other sub 4.4 wideouts. Or hand it off to McFadden. The Chiefs suck. Oakland -4.5, thanks.
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Arizona: I really wanted to take Arizona here and just pray they lost by three. Beanie is going to run on this defense, but Kolb won't be able to keep them from loading the box in the second half. Take Pittsburgh -3.5.
Dallas -12.5 @ St Louis: I don't feel the need to say much about this except St Louis has a JV secondary and Dallas has a pretty dirty receiving core. Dallas -12.5 is easy money.
Green Bay -9 @ Minnesota: GB is due to put up a stinkbomb. This ain't the game. Christian Ponder will make a few plays of note and the loss won't be his fault but Green Bay -9 is my pick.
Indianapolis +14 @ New Orleans: I don't know what it is about this New Orleans team, but I don't buy them. And for some reason, I think this Indy team can hang with everyone and not beat anybody. I'll take Indy +14.
Baltimore -7.5 @ Jacksonville: I've heard multiple analysts call this Ravens D as good as the 01 D that won the SB single handedly (sorry, Trent). The Ravens average margin of victory is 22.5 points this year. Do I need to make myself any more clear. I refuse to put this one in bold print, it's that clear.
*There you go. Those are my picks for the weekend. In all honesty, if you bet the opposite of every single pick, you would probably win money. There are 13 games this weekend, the goal for every weekend is to just finish above .500, let's see how that works out.
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